Hey Democrats, Stop Freaking Out
Quality polls show Harris winning, but Democrats are freaking out anyway.
by Ben Cohen
Dominating the news cycle today is a very insidery Axios article claiming “a growing number of top Democrats” believe Kamala Harris is going to lose the election:
Allen and VandeHei also spoke to “top Republicans” who they claim “seem shockingly confident, given the consistent 50-50 polls. They talk in granular detail about White House jobs, and discuss policy playbooks for '25.”
I have no reason to disbelieve Allen and VandeHei or their reporting, but the article is classic beltway insider clickbait bullshit. It’s a sugar high for poll junkies and political horserace addicts designed to generate clicks. Unnamed sources expressing doom about the Democrats’ chances is about as meaningful as a Donald Trump tweet.
It is worth repeating this over and over again for Democrats: the polls have barely moved in weeks and as we head into the final stretch, the only thing that counts is the ability to drive voters to the polls.
To reassure you, here are the latest New York Times polling averages for the swing states that will determine the outcome of the election:
This means the high quality polls show Harris ahead in Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, and Michigan, the only states she needs out of the seven to win the election outright.
Furthermore, when you look at Trump’s ground game, it becomes clear that the Elon Musk outsourced operation is a total shit show. As Reuters reports:
The political action committee funded by billionaire Elon Musk to help re-elect former U.S. President Donald Trump is struggling in some swing states to meet doorknocking goals and is investigating claims that some canvassers lied about the number of voters they have contacted, according to people involved in the group's efforts.
The difficulties, in pivotal battleground states including Wisconsin and Nevada, come as the group, America PAC, races to enlist voters behind the Republican candidate in the final two weeks before the Nov. 5 election. Four people involved in the group's outreach told Reuters that managers warned canvassers they are missing targets and needed to raise the number of would-be voters they contact.
The Guardian reports that the canvassers also appear to be faking the number of doors they have knocked on:
Donald Trump’s campaign may be failing to reach thousands of voters they hope to turn out in Arizona and Nevada, with roughly a quarter of door-knocks done by America Pac flagged by its canvassing app as potentially fraudulent, according to leaked data and people familiar with the matter.
The potentially fake door-knocks – when canvassers falsely claim to have visited a home – could present a serious setback for Trump as he and Kamala Harris remain even in the polls with fewer than 20 days until an election.
So when Harris is up in the polls in the swing states she needs to win, has a 3-1 ratio cash advantage, and a vastly superior ground game, Democrats need to, excuse my french, chill the fuck out.
The polls do point to an extremely close election, but we know that polls are almost never accurate and have a pretty bad track record of predicting election outcomes. They missed Trump in 2016, overestimated Biden in 2020, and underestimated Democrats in 2022. We also know that most polls are weighted in a way that favors Trump, so there is every reason to believe that Harris has an even greater lead in the swing states than even the best polls are picking up on.
Trump and the MAGA movement have had a disastrous run since 2016. They lost the House in 2018, the House, the Senate and the White House in 2020. They flopped badly in 2022, most notably when running MAGA election denying candidates. After Roe was overturned, Democrats have delivered victory after victory across the country, and there is no reason to believe this election will be any different.
In 2020, Donald Trump and his supporters believed they were on course for a crushing victory. This created huge amount of fear in Democrats who were almost inconsolable in the weeks leading up to the election. I remember taking dozens of phone calls and texts from anxious friends asking me whether Trump was going to win again. Given the money Biden had raised, his sophisticated outreach program, and Trump’s shocking behavior while in office, I couldn’t see it happening. Biden had a broad Democratic coalition, a vast fortune to spend, and was running against a candidate who was very, very lucky to have won in 2016. While Biden’s victory wasn’t a landslide, it was definitive enough, and Democrats have trounced Republicans all around the country ever since.
On November 5th, Americans get to turn the page on Trumpism, and I believe they will. So don’t fret the polls. Just organize, donate, and vote, and the orange menace will be gone for good.
The Banter will donate all proceeds from Banter Memberships sold to the Harriz/Waltz campaign. With a membership, you’ll get access to all premium articles, The Emergency Meeting Podcast, and exclusive member chat threads. You can get 50% off a Banter Membership here:
Thank you for the reassurance with great data to back it up!
"On November 5th, Americans get to turn the page on Trumpism"
Would that it were so. I believe Harris is poised to win. (After 2016 I'm hesitant to feel too over confident and say she *will*, but all signs point to Harris this time.) But that, alas, won't be much of a page turning. Trump and his brown shirts will be doing all they can to disrupt, overthrow, sow doubt.
When we get to Jan 20 and she's sworn in, I'll breathe a bit easier. There will still be half the country saying she didn't win legitimately, even if she had Nixon '72 like numbers. Like destructive weeds that just won't die, that will continue to be something we need to keep rooting out for years to come.