A Quick Note, And Some Reassurance For Democrats

Image: Andrew Harnik/The Associated Press]

A quick note from Ben: No podcast today I’m afraid. Justin is down with a cold and I’ve been in and out of urgent care all week with both my kids (thankfully nothing too serious). We’ll be back next week to discuss the dramatic events over the past couple of days.

In lieu of the podcast, I wanted to share a clip from one of my favorite geopolitical analysts, Peter Zeihan, on how to think about the election between President Biden and Donald Trump. There is a lot of Democratic anxiety about the election, mostly regarding Biden’s age and ability to mount a strong enough defense against his previous opponent. People point to the polls showing Trump’s popularity and Biden’s sinking numbers, but as all of us here at The Banter have maintained, this is an illusion. Polls mean absolutely nothing this far out, and general elections are won via the Electoral College. If you drill down further, it is the swing states that decide elections, and more specifically, independent voters in those swing states.

What is happening to independent voters? As Zeihan notes, the 2022 midterm elections give us a pretty good read of how they are feeling right now. And this is very bad news for the GOP and Donald Trump:

The news media is sadly bereft of sober, objective analysts like Zeihan who don’t obsess over polls and the 24 hour news cycle. While pundits are desperate for a two way horse race, we must remember that Trump is a uniquely weak candidate more likely to end up in jail than the White House in 2025.

Hope everyone is having a great Sunday!

Ben

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