Democrats Must Use Fear Of Obamacare Repeal To Defeat Trump in 2020

Health care is an issue Trump is incapable of winning on.

by Ben Cohen

Having studied Trump and covered him almost daily for over three years now, I’m fairly confident I understand what it would take to beat him this election. The strategy needed to down Trump and his abhorrent movement isn’t sexy, and doesn’t revolve around a political megastar who could beat Trump at his own game.

It comes down to focusing on a single issue that will tie Trump up in knots and force him onto territory he is not comfortable in. And that issue is healthcare.

Star power won’t cut it

While media pundits chatter incessantly about the perceived star power of the Democratic candidates running for office, they seem to have forgotten about the nuts and bolts of successful campaigning, and more specifically what wins elections.

The punditocracy is interested in creating headlines and having an explosive contest that drives viewership, and that means obsessing over the personality of the contestants and how well they come across on television. While star power could help a candidate running against Trump, it will not be the defining factor in any winning strategy.

“Unless your candidate is a generational superstar like Barack Obama or Bill Clinton, we know all the tricks to beating them and we’ve used them over and over again,” notorious Republican strategist Rick Wilson told the Guardian recently.

I believe Wilson is entirely right about this. There are no generational superstars in the Democratic field (Pete Buttigieg has some potential, but appears a little green at 37), and the party needs to come to terms with this quickly. There must be a strategy put in place to make the contest a referendum on something Trump is particularly weak on.

When you assess all the issues that makes a real difference in people’s lives, transcends party lines, and will cause serious problems for Trump, health care is head and shoulders above the rest.

Health care, health care, health care

Poll after poll suggests that health care is the most important issue to most Americans in 2020. It also happens to be an issue where Trump and the GOP have major, major vulnerabilities. Having tried to repeal and replace the Affordable Care Act in 2017, most Republicans were scared off the issue and haven’t gone anywhere near it since John McCain, Susan Collins and Lisa Murkowski voted it down in the Senate. A federal appeals court did strike down Obamacare’s individual mandate provision recently, but Republicans were notably quiet about their victory, knowing full well bragging about it could cost them dearly in 2020.

Mitch McConnell had to sit Trump down and stop him trying to force a pre-election vote on repealing the ACA last year knowing full well his party would lose badly if a vote were successful. More recently, Trump bragged on Twitter that he was “the one who saved pre-existing conditions,” on people’s health care plans, forgetting of course that his own DOJ is trying to gut the ACA in its entirety.

Trump was roundly savaged for his brazen lie, and everyone around him will no doubt urge him to stay away from the subject going forward.

The reality of politics anywhere in the world is that you take something away from people - health care, social security, childcare etc, et, and replace it with nothing, you have a very hard time getting re-elected. Conservatives in Britain don’t dare touch the NHS, and even the most right wing Republican knows not to campaign on gutting social security or Medicare. George W. Bush tried to start privatizing social security in 2005, but his efforts were thwarted so effectively Republicans have barely mentioned it since. Mitch McConnell knows this all too well and is in no rush to boot millions of Americans off their insurance plans.

This is the line McConnell and Trump strategists fear the most going into 2020:

Donald Trump is going to take away your health care, and you will go broke paying medical bills.

If Democrats drill this into the public consciousness Trump will lose in 2020. Yes, it is negative, and no it does not offer Americans a compelling “vision” for the future. But it is the truth, and Americans don’t like things being taken away from them — particularly life saving drugs and medical care for their children.

A strategist’s delight

There is so much to hit Trump on when it comes to health care that it is hard to know where to start. Luckily, the Democrats only need three main talking points to batter Trump with. They are:

1. Trump wants to repeal the ACA

2. Trump wants to get rid of protections for pre-existing conditions

3. Trump has no health care plan of his own.

Democrats can run ad after ad after ad driving home this point, and turn the debates into a referendum on his health care plan. Given Trump doesn’t understand the issue or his own plan (or lack thereof), it won’t be difficult to trap him in a number of egregious lies. There is also evidence to suggest that Trump is vulnerable with his base on health care, meaning effective messaging could siphon voters away from him in crucial states.

Trump has little room for error going into 2020, and health care represents the perfect landmine for him if Democrats are smart.

Play Trump at his own game

Trump has been extraordinarily effective as a politician for one main reason: he is always able to move the debate onto his terms. You attack him on his history of misogyny and alleged sexual assault, you end up arguing about Bill Clinton or Harvey Weinstein. You attack him on corruption and trying to bribe a foreign government, you end up discussing Hunter Biden. Trump is brilliant at changing the subject, particularly if he senses weakness. On health care though, Trump has nowhere to go. All the prominent Democrats have a better record on health care than Trump does, and there is a mountain of evidence proving that a re-elected Trump administration would destroy what is left of the ACA and boot millions of Americans off of their insurance plans.

Any Democrat can hit Trump over and over again on the topic without any fear of effective retribution. It’s territory he isn’t comfortable fighting on, so the Democratic nominee should focus almost all of their efforts on ensuring that is exactly where the contest is held. When the debate moves to immigration, the Democratic nominee should remind Americans that Trump wants to take away their health care. When it comes to guns, the Democratic nominee should remind Americans that Trump wants to take away their health care. When it comes to military spending, the Democratic nominee should remind Americans that Trump wants to take away their health care. When it comes to foreign policy, the Democratic nominee should remind Americans that Trump wants to take away their health care. When it comes to social security spending, the Democratic nominee should remind Americans that Trump wants to take away their health care.

Donald Trump is going to take away your health care, and you will go broke paying medical bills.

That is how Donald Trump loses, and Democrats must not allow him to change the subject. Ever.

(image via Obama White House Archives)

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