Here's Why Biden Can Win

Trump continues to underperform the polls by staggering margins.

by Bob Cesca

WASHINGTON, DC – I should probably be more panicked about the presidential election. Don’t get me wrong, I’m both disillusioned and completely stressed out about the prospect of too many delusional, amnesiac voters prioritizing the price of eggs over the avalanche of chaos Donald Trump will unleash in a second term. 

But as of right now, I have reason to believe the president can beat Trump again.

We can’t really trust the polls, duh, so my confidence doesn’t rise and fall based on whatever shock poll drops my lap. But one thing we know for certain: Trump continues to underperform the polls by staggering margins. 

For example, on Super Tuesday, Trump was forecasted to win the state of Vermont by 30 points. Instead, Nikki Haley defeated him by four points. In primaries from California to Minnesota to Virginia, Trump’s results were considerably lower than the polls forecasted.

Given all that, my cautious optimism is fueled mainly by Trump’s underperformance as well as exit polling that indicates a significant percentage of Nikki Haley voters say they will not vote for Trump in November.

Let’s look at one state that some of us have written off as a likely Trump victory in November: North Carolina. 

Rewinding back to 2020, the criminal con-man tyrant won the state by a relatively narrow margin of 74,483 votes. The safe bet is he’ll probably win that state again, and I won’t be shocked if that happens.

However, a CBS News exit poll Tuesday night indicated that 78 percent of Nikki Haley voters refuse to vote for Trump in the general. I suppose they’ll either stay home or leave the presidential slot blank or vote for a third party candidate – a few might actually vote for Biden. We don’t really know which of these options it’ll be and it’s unclear whether these are likely voters for the general – all important caveats for what I’m about to do here. For the sake of argument, let’s assume these voters are likely to cast ballots in November. 

In the North Carolina primary this week, Nikki Haley ended up with 249,651 votes. If we calculate 78 percent of that total, we get 176,790 potential Republican votes that would normally go to the Republican nominee – but won’t be, according to CBS News.

Again, Trump won North Carolina in 2020 by 74,483 votes. That means the number of Republicans voting against Trump or refusing to vote at all this year is more than his 2020 margin of victory. In a vacuum, without any other mitigating circumstances, it’d put Biden over the top with a 102,307 vote margin of victory. If the Biden campaign can maintain turnout close to 2020’s – a big “if” during a re-election campaign – it’s entirely possible we could squeak out a win in North Carolina. Wafer thin, but still a win.

It’s for this reason that I’m calling North Carolina a tossup state with its 16 electoral votes. I still believe it’s Trump’s to lose, but Biden has a serious shot.

Add into the mix the backlash against the Dobbs decision and how Democrats have been over performing in special elections and the 2022 midterms as a consequence of radical Republican anti-abortion laws.

Plus, the existence of an extremist Republican nominee for North Carolina governor, current Lt. Gov. Mark Robinson, might also drive up Democratic turnout in that state. Sawyer Hackett reported that Robinson is a Holocaust denier, he said mass shootings are “karma” for abortion, he referred to children murdered in mass shootings as “prosti-tots,” and he said gay people are “the end of civilization.” My hunch is that between Robinson’s extremism and Trump’s extremism, N.C. Democrats could surprise us with some serious turnout energy to push back against these tyrants. 

No matter what, we can’t get complacent. This election will be entirely about turnout, turnout, turnout. Let’s just assume that the polls are correct and act accordingly. There’s nothing to lose with this strategy and everything to gain. We have eight months to mobilize against a very serious threat to both democracy and global stability – the aforementioned avalanche of chaos. We can’t get hung up on inconsequential distractions like Biden’s age or the price of eggs. This is about humiliating Trump and dropping another firewall between us and fascist idiocracy. If you have the time, contact your local Biden campaign office or Democratic Party headquarters and get to work.

Read an excerpt from the latest for Banter Members and get 50% off a Banter Membership!:

The New Russian Talking Point Consuming The Addled Brains Of MAGAland

Trump supporters are battling against a new imaginary enemy.

by Justin Rosario

While scrolling through the dying dumpster fire that is Twitter I came across a tweet by Marc Elias. If that name rings a bell, it should — he’s one of the people spearheading the effort to keep Republicans from stealing elections, both state and federal. Elias has been very successful in thwarting Republican voter suppression and election rigging schemes, so of course journalists like Matt Taibbi have been having nervous breakdowns about it.

Consequently, Elias gets a lot of hate mail, some of which he reads because, contrary to the saying, “never read the comment section,” it helps to know what your enemies are saying about you. Personally, I do it because I enjoy the taste of MAGA tears, but it’s just as important to know where the current propaganda is pushing the right. What their thought process, such as it is, involves. Forewarned is forearmed, yes? 

For instance, the right has started to look at the last several years of Republican failure as a “color revolution.”

I was not familiar with the phrase or how it would apply to suing Republicans in court to stop them from stripping millions of Americans of their right to vote. Poking around that rabbit hole a bit was an eye-opener. As I said, it’s really important to know what your enemies are thinking..

This is an excerpt from today’s Members Only piece. Get 50% off a Banter Membership and continue reading here!:

The New Russian Talking Point Consuming The Addled Brains Of MAGAland