Sorry, MAGA, Autocracy Leads to Crappy Economies
A terrible economic crisis may be the only way to reveal MAGA’s failures.
by Bob Cesca
WASHINGTON, DC – I’m still in that place where I thoroughly resent the voters who stupidly decided to return Donald Trump to the White House, believing he would return inflation to 2019 levels. But as the rest of us know, Republican presidents don’t have the greatest record on the economy. In fact, history shows it outright sucks. The New York Times summed it up:
"[Gross domestic product] growth averages 4.23% under Dems vs. 2.36% under GOP. Job creation? 1.7% yearly for Dems, 1.0% for Republicans. Also, 9 of the last 10 recessions started under Republican presidents."
Wait. Correction. That wasn’t The New York Times. The above statistics were produced by Elon Musk’s “Grok” feature on X. We apologize for the (deliberate) error.
But Donald is no ordinary Republican. As we’re all observing through great anxiety and uncertainty, he’s an autocrat cut from the same snotty cloth as his Russian hero Putin, not to mention Recep Tayyip Erdogan of Turkey, Viktor Orban of Hungary, and others.
Speaking of the non-Donald autocrats, how are their economies doing?
Russia
The headline this week: “The Russian economy is on the brink of collapse and Putin knows it”
The Russian ruble has lost over half of its value in a decade and inflation is rampant - with electricity up 250 per cent and interest rates at 21 per cent. As its citizens become increasingly impoverished, the key to peace will be Putin’s finances.
Last summer the price of eggs jumped by 42 per cent, bananas by 48 per cent, tomatoes by 39.5 percent and potatoes by 25 per cent. The Russian ruble has lost over half of its value since Putin first invaded Crimea in 2014, and over $600bn of the Kremlin’s foreign currency reserves have been frozen in Western banks.
Hungary
Hungary’s government will limit the profit margin for grocers on a number of basic food items, the prime minister said on Tuesday, a response to growing inflation hitting consumers in the Central European country.
Inflation data released Tuesday by Hungary’s statistical office showed an annual inflation rate of 5.6% for February, while food prices were up 7.1% on the year. By contrast, average inflation in the 20-member eurozone was 2.4% in February, according to the European Union’s statistical office Eurostat.
And last year:
Hungary’s economy shrank by 0.7 per cent in the third quarter — the second contraction in a row — plunging the economy into a technical recession amid weak demand in the automotive, electronics and pharmaceutical sectors that dominate its manufacturing base.
Turkey
This week:
The Turkish lira fell to a record low against the dollar and the country’s benchmark stock index dropped by as much as 7% following the surprise arrest of Istanbul mayor Ekrem Imamoglu — a rival of Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan and leading opposition party figure — on charges he denies.
Turkey’s economy sank into a recession over the summer, with economic activity squeezed by high interest rates as the country’s central bank sought to tame inflation.
Argentina
Inflation is down, but does it matter when poverty and unemployment are through the roof?
On taking power, Milei implemented a series of austerity measures, including slashing energy and transportation subsidies, laying off tens of thousands of government workers, freezing public infrastructure projects and imposing wage and pension freezes below inflation.
It has been brutal. Unemployment has climbed, economic activity has declined and poverty has surged.
The brutal austerity has deepened Argentina’s recession, with consumer spending falling 20% percent in the past year and poverty rates soaring to a two-decade high of 52.9% in the second half of last year.
See the pattern? The United States is on the verge of joining the list, thanks to Donald’s herky-jerky trade wars and his assault on the federal government.
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Sadly, Americans who thought the economy would improve after having gifted Donald an undeserved second term will soon find out how wrong they were. The UCLA Anderson School of Management released its latest economic forecast, which it’s calling a “Recession Watch.” Will Donald’s policies trigger a recession?
The answer appears to be yes, that a downturn could result over the coming year or two, and that we should now be on a Recession Watch.
And in case you believe the administration’s forthcoming lies about how it was all Joe Biden’s fault, Anderson added:
Some Administrations inherit the conditions of a looming recession. What’s unique about this Recession Watch is that, to a large degree, it primarily depends on incoming [Trump] policy. … This Watch also serves as a warning to the current administration: be careful what you wish for because, if all your wishes come true, you could very well be the author of a deep recession.
They add that this recession is avoidable if Donald makes significant changes to his economic agenda. But we all know he won’t.
The New York Times published an extensive piece this week showing that his trade wars alone could eliminate millions more jobs in pro-Trump counties – counties that helped elect him to a second term. Elsewhere, the Atlanta Fed is forecasting a two percent contraction in the GDP this quarter, way down from a forecast of nearly four percent growth back in late January. The Dow has lost just over 2,000 points (4.68%) since Inauguration Day. And no one other than the president’s hagiographers are forecasting good news any time soon – even Donald himself admitted a recession might be in the offing.
None of this should come as any surprise. Donald was the only president in modern history to preside over a net loss of 2.7 million jobs in his first term. He also presided over both a 2019 manufacturing recession (he’s the guy who allegedly builds things, right?) and, as we all remember, a massive economy-wide recession due to his negligent non-response to COVID.
The stock price for his social media business, Trump Media & Technology Group Corp, which controls his social media app, has lost 43.47 percent in value in the past 12 months. Likewise, Elon Musk’s Tesla stock has declined in value by 50 percent since its high point in mid-December.
No wonder their economic policies will lead to an inevitable recession, accompanied by a significant increase in job losses, not to mention higher inflation due to pointless, frivolous, destabilizing tariffs.
At some point, voters will finally understand that Republican autocrats should never again be stewards of the national economy. Nothing but disaster follows, then Democrats have to come along to fix the mess.
By the way, there’s a major opportunity awaiting the Democrats to position themselves as the anti-oligarch, anti-billionaire party. The first Dem candidates who run on that platform will enjoy strong political tail winds propelling them to office. Still, it’s a heartbreaking tragedy that the economy will need to falter yet again before enough American voters realize the truth about incompetent MAGA autocrats.
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Historically, dictators aren’t deterred by bad times. Instead they use and manufacture bad times for a host of things centered around grip on power and subjugation of opposition. We’re not fully there yet, but look at Russian history since 1991 and consider that King in Orange loves everything about it. Once he’s done consolidating federal power, he’ll move on to crippling state governments and whatever is left of free press.
"Still, it’s a heartbreaking tragedy that the economy will need to falter yet again before enough American voters realize the truth about incompetent MAGA autocrats."
But you know they won't accept that realization. I feel like this is a price they're willing to rationalize away because of everything else Trump offers them. They will soothe that financial pain with the pain being inflicted on everyone else.