Trump Wants You Believe He's Winning. He's Not.
Junk polls, crypto bro betting sites and MAGA trolls are distorting reality and freaking Democrats out.
by Ben Cohen
If you believe the narrative put forward by much of the media, the presidential race is slipping away from Kamala Harris. Trump is surging in the polls, he’s the favorite in the betting markets, Kamala Harris isn’t reaching black men, the swing states are turning towards Trump, etc, etc.
Andrew Sullivan puts it this way:
At this point in 2020, Joe Biden, with far fewer resources than Harris, was 10 points ahead of Trump, and finished around 8.4 points ahead in the polling. Biden won the actual election by 4.5 percent, almost half the margin the polls predicted. At this point in 2016, Hillary Clinton was 6 points ahead, finished 3.6 points ahead in the polls, and ended up 2.1 percent ahead in the popular vote.
Run the numbers on Harris and you can begin to realize why smart Democrats are browning their whites. Today, Harris has a lead of just 2.6 percent nationally — much weaker than Clinton and Biden at this point. It’s the same in the swing states. Cillizza notes that in P…