Trump's Abortion Suicide Pact

My god. National policy based on how neat and tidy it sounds to the imbecile who wants to be in charge.

A Trump prayer meeting. Via Getty Images)

by Justin Rosario

After Republicans successfully overturned Roe by stealing two seats on the Supreme Court and perjuring themselves in front of Congress, things have been going very badly for them. Where once abortion drove the GOP base, it now drives Democratic voters. Democrats have overperformed in every election since the fall of Roe.

For a brief moment, Republicans panicked over this, wondering if perhaps they should stop talking about abortion. But Republicans at the state level have not been able to stop themselves from savagely abusing 50% of their populations in a bizarre race to see who can be the most cruel. The base lapped it up even as Republicans continued to pay a steep price at the ballot. The press still insisted the midterms would be a red wave that would overwhelm the anger of women. But reality, as they say, has a well-known liberal bias and the ovarian uprising continued.

For all his faults, Trump has always been exceptional at understanding what Republican voters wanted and giving it to them. This has led him to brag about overturning Roe, the single worst thing he could do short of swearing a blood oath to Vladimir Putin in front of a crowd of Neo-Nazis on live television. He has to do this. He has no choice.

Now he is mulling a suicide pact with Evangelical Christians that would precipitate the end of his political career.

The national abortion ban no one wants

Last week, the New York Times broke a story about Trump privately musing a 16-week national abortion ban:

Former President Donald J. Trump has told advisers and allies that he likes the idea of a 16-week national abortion ban with three exceptions, in cases of rape or incest, or to save the life of the mother, according to two people with direct knowledge of Mr. Trump’s deliberations.

If you’ll recall, Republicans said that they would never ever in a million years so help me god pursue a national abortion ban. They believed down to their DNA that abortion was an issue for the states to decide and how dare you question their honesty? The Republican extremists on the Supreme Court explicitly said that abortion is not a federal issue and that it would be a mistake for the federal government to get involved. 

Of course none of this was true — Republicans have made it abundantly clear they plan to pass a nationwide abortion ban at the first opportunity. So, really, the only people who are “surprised” are the news media journalists who maintain we are in a 50/50 race and Joe Biden is at death’s door.

But 16 weeks? 

If there’s something about 16 weeks that’s making you tilt your head to the side like a dog hearing a high-pitched whistle, there’s a reason for that. Isn’t 16 weeks the second trimester? Yes. Yes, it is. Don’t almost all abortions happen in the first trimester? According to Forbes (and every legitimate study), yes. Yes, they do:

The vast majority of abortions occur in the first trimester, according to the CDC. Nearly 80% of abortions happen at or before 9 weeks gestation and 93% occur at or before 13 weeks. The average pregnancy lasts around 40 weeks and medication abortion is an option up to 10 weeks. 

A 16 week ban would allow up to 93% of abortions. That…doesn’t seem like the cruelty we’ve come to expect from the party of sadistic religious zealots. So why a 16 week ban? 

Because Trump is a simpleton:

One thing Mr. Trump likes about a 16-week federal ban on abortions is that it’s a round number. “Know what I like about 16?” Mr. Trump told one of these people, who was given anonymity to describe a private conversation. “It’s even. It’s four months.”

My god. National policy based on how neat and tidy it sounds to the imbecile who wants to be in charge.

Here’s the amazing part: Trump wants exceptions for rape or incest or to save the mother’s life. To you and me, this is perfectly reasonable even if 16 weeks is not. But to the GOP’s anti-abortion base? This is absolute heresy. They want no exceptions at all. Even where they do exist legally, Republicans have made sure exceptions functionally do not exist. The Hill explains:

A study published this week estimated nearly 65,000 pregnancies associated with rape occurred in the 14 states that have enacted abortion bans since the Dobbs decision in 2022.

…

Based on available data, researchers estimated 519,981 completed rapes occurred in this time frame, with 64,565 associated with pregnancies. Among rape-related pregnancies, 5,586 — 8.7 percent — are estimated to have occurred in states with abortion bans that included exceptions for rape.

“In this cross-sectional study, thousands of girls and women in states that banned abortion experienced rape-related pregnancy, but few (if any) obtained in-state abortions legally, suggesting that rape exceptions fail to provide reasonable access to abortion for survivors,” the study stated.

This, of course, was always the point: To force women to carry a fetus to term no matter what. Rape, incest, potential death, none of that matters. Women must pay the price for having a uterus.

So how serious is Trump about these exceptions? Pretty serious:

When discussing prospective vice-presidential candidates, Mr. Trump often asks whether they are “OK on abortion.” He is instantly dismissive when he hears that a Republican doesn’t support “the three exceptions.” He tells advisers that Republicans will keep losing elections with that position.

I don’t know who has Trump’s ear but they’re not wrong. Militant anti-abortion measures have been costing Republicans elections everywhere, including in deep red states. Running on such a platform would be suicide. 

And here is where Trump is potentially painting himself into a fatal corner.

Any talk of a national abortion ban will send the Democratic base into an enraged frenzy. It doesn’t matter if the “ban” is actually significantly to the left of what Republican-controlled states are currently inflicting on women. No woman is going to settle for anything less than a restoration of Roe which was up to 24 weeks and then later if medically necessary. 

On the other hand, the Evangelicals that Trump absolutely needs to have any chance of winning will look at a 16 week ban, with exceptions, no less!, as a total betrayal. It would give women back much of the rights Evangelicals have been gleefully stealing for the last two years. Texas would go from almost no abortions back to 93% of them being legal. Unthinkable!

How will this tug of war resolve itself?

The mob rules

Trump loves to brag about appointing the Justices who overturned Roe but he, personally, has zero commitment to the anti-abortion movement. He used to be pro-choice when it was convenient. Remember, Trump has no ideology beyond “What’s in it for me?”

This is why he never gives a definitive answer on where he stands on abortion. He is the ultimate politician in that sense. He will go wherever the wind blows but that places him in an untenable position. 

His most dedicated supporters will not accept anything less than a total ban. Trump is aware he cannot shed any support whatsoever. But he is also aware (or someone is making sure he understands), that pushing a total ban will activate the Democratic base in a way that will make 2020 seem like a sleepy small town election for PTA treasurer. Even just aping the types of bans Republicans have instituted in their “Handmaid’s Tale” cosplay states would result in a Democratic wildfire that would leave Trump a charred husk.

A 16 week ban tries to thread that needle but…no. It is, quite literally, the worst option available, pissing off everyone in the exact worst way possible for Trump. It would be the greatest gift imaginable to Democrats but I can’t imagine it will happen. Trump has to understand his base will revolt and, in the end, he will give them what they demand. I know we all believe that Trump is a cult leader and the Republican base will blindly obey but that’s not always true.

Don’t forget, Trump tried to sell Republicans on the success of the Covid vaccine released during his administration. How much Trump was responsible for the vaccine is debatable but it was during his time in office so he gets to claim at least some credit. The base was not having it and Trump was forced to censor himself to please the mob. The mob rules and Trump’s 16 week abortion ban will either crash and burn or quietly go away, never seeing the light of day.

That leaves Trump with the option of not talking about abortion at all, which will infuriate his base. Or, Trump will go all in on an Evangelical-endorsed abortion ban which will turbocharge voters against him. I’m very much looking forward to the impending mandatory self-inflicted wound. I don’t think even a Trump-friendly press will be able to save the Orange Toxic Waste Dump from this one. Quite the conundrum. Very sad. 

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