Unlocked: The Truth About Trump's Chances In 2024
The media is going to make this a competitive race irrespective of whether it actually will be.
NOTE FROM BEN: I published this article last week for members but am making it free for all Banter readers today. I think it is incredibly important not to succumb to panic over the next few months, particularly given the media’s penchant for sensationalizing conflicts. The truth is, the 2024 race is going to be incredibly nasty and very grueling, but not for the reasons pundits claim.
by Ben Cohen
After Donald Trump’s New Hampshire win, his victory in the GOP primary is almost guaranteed. Yes, Nikki Haley is staying in the race and promises to make a fight of it, but the truth is she has almost no chance of winning.
The country now needs to brace itself for a Donald Trump vs Joe Biden rematch in what promises to be one of the grimmest events in modern history.
While most normal people are shuddering at the prospect of watching Trump tear down the country so that he can stay out of jail, the news media is salivating over the opportunity to cover the rerun. Trump after all, is a cash cow for the corporate news conglomerates.
The news media’s coverage of Trump is extremely important because it is going to have a profound impact on the perception of the upcoming election. And the perception right now is that Trump is favored to beat President Biden and return to the White House.
Is this really true? Are we doomed to have another Trump term and all the chaos that goes with it, or is the media distorting events for its own self-interested purposes?
Media distortions
The for-profit model of America’s news media guarantees a very specific outcome: whatever sells most drives programming. In 2016 for example, Donald Trump almost single handedly saved CNN from financial doom. Reported NPR at the time:
Presidential election years always give a huge boost to all three major cable news channels. For CNN, this campaign cycle has been particularly good.
According to two people with detailed knowledge of the network's financial performance, CNN will make approximately $100 million in television and digital advertising revenues more than it would expect in the typical election year.
That's thanks to the huge interest in Trump, who seemingly received blanket coverage of every public pronouncement and rally during the extended Republican primary season.
The heightened level of viewers meant CNN could guarantee advertisers relatively high audiences — and lock in higher advance rates rather than simply take pride in an unexpected spike in ratings. CNN has also landed big-name sponsorships that were hard to get in the past.
The effect of this wall to wall coverage was to basically hand Trump free campaign advertising. Everyone wanted to know what Trump was going to say next, and the media obliged by following the train wreck wherever it went.
After Trump was shockingly elected by eking out small victories in crucial swing states, there was widespread acknowledgement that the media had failed spectacularly. Instead of exposing Trump as a criminal conman or fact checking his incessant stream of lies, the media followed their usual formula of turning the election into a horse race. It was Trump vs Hillary, Republicans vs Democrats, Red vs Blue in a contest where both sides were “just as bad.” An investigation from Harvard Kennedy School’s Shorenstein Center on Media, Politics and Public Policy found that:
Both Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump received coverage that was overwhelmingly negative in tone and extremely light on policy.
The negativity was not unique to the 2016 election cycle but instead part of a pattern in place since the 1980s and one that is not limited to election coverage. “A healthy dose of negativity is unquestionably a good thing,” writes Thomas Patterson, the study’s author. “Yet an incessant stream of criticism has a corrosive effect. It needlessly erodes trust in political leaders and institutions and undermines confidence in government and policy,” resulting in a media environment full of false equivalencies that can mislead voters about the choices they face.
The study also found that contrary to Trump’s assertion that he was being hounded by the media, Hillary Clinton was actually subjected to more overall negative media coverage than he was.
The net effect of this was to normalize Trump’s lunacy and portray him as a legitimate alternative to Hillary Clinton. This wasn’t because the media was attempting to be impartial — it was because they had a vested interest in turning the election into a competitive horse race.
Why does all of this matter for 2024? For one salient reason: the media is going to make this a competitive race irrespective of whether it actually will be.
Trump is not in good shape
The general impression heading into the 2024 election is that we will see a highly competitive race between Trump and Biden. Trump has been rehabilitated by the right wing media, and the rest will follow suit. CNN/CBS/NBC etc won’t shill for Trump, but they will normalize him. The profit incentive demands it, and as long as the major news organizations have to answer to shareholders, they will do what is in their financial interest.
This is already starting to happen, as pundits obsess over poll numbers and use fancy graphics to show Trump and Biden in head to head matches across the country.
The reality, however, is that Donald Trump is in real trouble heading into the general election, while President Biden is actually in very good shape. There are several reasons for this, but one huge factor is the independent voters who are fleeing Trump in droves. While Trump won the New Hampshire primary, his support amongst independent voters has complete collapsed. Reported NewsWeek:
According to an Associated Press VoteCast survey of 1,989 Republican New Hampshire primary voters, about half of Haley's supporters in New Hampshire's primary voted for Biden in 2020.
Rachel Bitecofer, a political strategist and election forecaster, suggested that Trump got "absolutely crushed" by Haley with independent voters in New Hampshire while sharing poll results showing she got 61 percent support from the demographic, compared to Trump's 37 percent.
"GOP strategists will want to puke when they see that margin," Bitecofer posted on X, formerly Twitter.
Another exit poll from Reuters found that around 35 percent of those who took part in Tuesday's primary vote considered themselves moderates or liberals, of which only around one in five backed Trump.
As The Cook Political Report’s Dave Wasserman noted: “New Hampshire is politically unique in many ways, but it’s off the charts in terms of its share of independent voters who don’t like Trump.”
When you extrapolate outwards towards a general election, this spells almost disaster for Trump. Independents were key to Biden’s success in 2020, and they will play a pivotal role again in 2024.
As focus on the general narrows and the Biden campaign begins to ramp up, Trump is going to have to win over the independents he lost in 2020 if he wants to be competitive. There are several factors making this an almost impossible task.
Criminal indictments
Trump is facing four criminal indictments in the coming months, all of which could result in prison time. Crucially, he will likely go on trial for his role in the Jan. 6th coup attempt before November. Regardless of the outcome, the public nature of the trial is going to be devastating for Trump, particularly with independent voters. They will see hours of footage and listen to incredibly damning evidence proving Trump’s role in the violence.
Furthermore, Trump is not going to moderate his insane position that the 2020 election was stolen from him, or whether he should be held accountable for it. Trump is going to mount a scorched earth campaign against anyone or anything that opposes him — including the US legal system. How will this play with moderates and independents? Probably not very well.
The independent shift away from Trump as November looms is likely to be dramatic, particularly so if Trump is convicted. Remember: around 0.4% of defendants in federal criminal cases are acquitted in court, so statistically speaking, Trump has virtually no hope of beating the charges. And if he does become a convicted criminal, a third of Republicans — not independents — have indicated they will not vote for him.
Don’t underestimate Biden or the Democrats
Voting trends over the past few years also point to a huge advantage for President Biden. Democrats have been outperforming Republicans consistently — particularly after the Supreme Court gutted Roe vs Wade. As MSNBC columnist Michael A. Cohen writes:
Because special elections are one of the single best predictors of future political outcomes. In 2017, Democrats overperformed by double digits in special elections, presaging their 40-seat victory in the House of Representatives in 2018….
The best indicator of the current mood of the electorate may not be found in Biden’s poll numbers, the chatter of Democratic donors or perennial discontent among Democratic voters but rather in small, little-covered special elections in which Republicans continue to underperform.
President Biden it should be noted, has already beaten Trump in 2020, and has raised a lot more money on hand for his campaign. With the economy rapidly turning around and a stellar track record to run on, the Biden re-election team will be brimming with confidence.
The news media isn’t trying to throw the election to Trump, but they would prefer everyone to believe it will be closely contested campaign. We will hear lots about Biden’s age, be shown incessant polls showing how close it is, and watch fiery debates with party strategists. But just as Biden comfortably beat Trump in 2020, the overwhelming likelihood is that he will win with an even bigger margin in 2024.
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There have been something like 30+ special elections in the past 3 years. The Democratic candidate has outperformed in every single one and has won something like 80% of those elections. Yes gerrymandering is that bad. I'm not complacent but am comfortable with those numbers. Some people talk about this or that person accurately predicting the election. My question is what are the bookmakers saying about this upcoming ?