Yes, Joe Biden Will Run Again And There’s A Good Chance He’ll Win
Biden's latest physical indicated he’s in great shape. And we should assume that he’ll run again.
by Bob Cesca
WASHINGTON, DC – If you’ve seen Raging Bull, the classic based-on-a-true-story Martin Scorsese film about boxer Jake LaMotta, it’s difficult to forget the scene in which an old, bloated LaMotta holds court on stage at his seedy nightclub, telling shitty jokes and stories to a gawking audience about his glory days as a professional fighter.
When I watched a video, this week, of Donald Trump’s first stage show with co-loser Bill O’Reilly, I immediately flashed to Jake LaMotta cheesing it up in that nightclub. Trump, goaded by accused sexual predator O’Reilly, ran through all of his favorite stories from his presidency, dropping his now infamous catch-phrases for cheap applause from the minuscule crowd of loyalists.
At one point, Trump was asked which foreign leader he liked the most. Not a shocker that he name-checked Vladimir Putin, Xi Jinping, and Kim Jong-un – everyone else, Trump said, were weak. He didn’t like the weak leaders, just the ruthless dictators, which comes as no surprise. This led the disgraced one-term ex-president to tell a story about his meeting with the aforementioned North Korean dictator, which, by the way, was a colossally dark day for American foreign policy. Nevertheless…
Trump talked about asking Chairman Kim if he’s ever heard of Elton John. See previous “dark day for American foreign policy” remark. Trump said Kim didn’t know the name, so the ex-president elaborated: Elton John produced a song called “Rocket Man.” This, Trump explained, is how he came up with Kim’s stupid nickname: Liddle’ (sic) Rocket Man. The crowd cheered.
Here comes the weird part.
Trump said he reached into his pocket and pulled out a cassette, as in a cassette tape of, presumably, Elton John’s “Rocket Man,” along with a cassette player. Then Trump said he played the cassette of the song for Kim. A cassette? What? We already know Trump lied about most if not all of the story, which, in a way, is a relief given the disastrous North Korea context. But the cassette part totally gave away the lie. We’re expected to believe the then-president, in 2018, carried around an old Walkman loaded with a cassette of an Elton John single, originally released in 1972? Even in a made-up story, the reference to a cassette is so anachronistic with modern 21st Century technology, we’re once again left to ask the question: Is Trump’s cheese sliding off his cracker?
Had it been President Biden playing a cassette of an old song to an overseas nuclear-capable adversary, it’d be a three day story in the traditional press about whether he’s mentally fit for the job, and, worse, it’d be a three year story on Fox News. But with Trump, who I’m pretty sure had a stroke on live television during his remarks recognizing Jerusalem, it gets flushed down the memory hole. Just more Trump noise. This is the lopsided nature of our politics now.
Speaking of Fox News, the word over there is that Biden is suffering from a mental decline or dementia – that he’s too old and feeble to be president. As we get closer and closer to 2023-24, you can bet on the traditional press picking up the story, with endless op/eds written by guys like Cillizza, Lizza, and Dilanian about whether Biden should step aside and allow a field of younger Democrats to run in his place. In a way, it’s already started.
The latest Morning Consult/Politico poll asked: “Potential Democratic primary voters were asked who they would support in a presidential primary if Biden does not run for president in 2024.” For what it’s worth, Vice President Harris leads, followed by Pete Buttigieg, Senator Elizabeth Warren, and Rep. Ocasio-Cortez.
But that’s not the point of this poll. We should absolutely assume that Politico is setting the table for the “Biden is too old to run again” narrative. It’s a push-poll, which is intended to manufacture and circulate a narrative – not to ascertain voter opinions, but instead to start a whisper campaign among the non-Fox News crowd, in this case: Democratic primary voters.
Reacting to the poll, American Enterprise Institute’s Norm Ornstein added, “Even more, these polls are entirely meaningless and are simply clickbait.”
It’s a horseshit poll, and fairly typical of the cynical inside-DC editorial staff at Politico. They appear to be building the framework for a pre-ordained narrative so that when they debut their conga-line of very serious concern-trolling hot takes about Biden’s age and mental acuity, the ground will be prepped for it, helping to build pressure inside the party establishment and especially among voters to soften on their support for re-electing the president. I mean, I hate to even write about it, for fear of helping to spread the nonsense.
To be clear: there’s no evidence that Biden, who’s always been gaffe prone going back to the 1980s, has any issues in the dementia spectrum. His latest physical indicated he’s in great shape. And we should assume, as with all incumbents, that he’ll run again, mainly because he’s already told us he will. And it’s quite likely that the 2024 version of Biden will be pretty on-par with the 2020 version, no matter what Politico might say to the contrary.
The most important part of this equation is that we all proceed knowing that, fucking yes, Biden will run again, and he’s going to win. Why? Because he’s just as likely to run and win as any incumbent, and because the alternative – a Republican victory – is nightmarish.
Meanwhile, there’s a midterm election just around the corner. So, enjoy a restful holiday break. Then suit up and get your war faces on.
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Why Trump Might Not Run
There is one major factors most media pundits are not taking into account.
by Ben Cohen
The general consensus in the media seems to be that Donald Trump will run for President again in 2024. Pundits are busy “reporting” on a mythical matchup between Trump and Biden, and a slew of Democrats they are convinced will replace the sitting President.
“Kamala vs Trump”, “Buttigieg vs Trump” and even “Gretchen Whitmer vs Trump” stories are circulating, sending casual observers of politics into a feeding frenzy. The two major narratives appear to be that:
Biden is too old to be President, and a resurgent Trump is going to destroy him.
There are many Democrats vying to replace Biden, none of whom are equipped to take on Trump (the focus is on Kamala Harris).
If you’ve covered US politics for long enough, you know to ignore pretty much anyone who makes bold claims about who will be facing who in an upcoming presidential election, particularly more than a year out. Perennial grifter/political consultant Dick Morris once penned a book titled “Condi vs Hillary” in 2005, staking his already ropey credibility on a matchup that anyone with functioning brain cell could predict would never happen. Republicans don’t vote for black women no matter how conservative they are, and Condoleezza Rice made clear on numerous occasions that she had zero interest in running for elected office.
Pundits stand to make a lot of money playing this irritating horse race game and it shouldn’t be paid much attention.
That being said, the issue as to whether Trump will run again in 2024 is an incredibly serious matter. The future of American democracy is again at stake — should Trump run again and win, the odds of the democratic system surviving another four year assault are slim to none.
While pundits are certain Trump will attempt to revenge his loss to Biden in 2024, there is another, far less popular school of thought that believes he will not run again. There is no way to know until Trump officially announces his intentions one way or the other, but there is one major reason he might not want to go through another election again…
Thanks for your calm analysis. I needed it to counteract news hypertension. Keep up the good work.
You know, its "know better" types like you that have us here. The Ds have had a year to pass something that will help people, with each house, and now that all important first year is gone and what do we have for all our faith, time, and money. A halfash BIP that does nothing to help people. "We need infrastructure!" some will cry. And we do. But there is a reason the Rs supported that one. First, the Ds will get no credit for something so diffuse, and second it will benefit them in ways they can claim credit for. Meanwhile, the left and D base is this pivotal year has gotten nothing of any important. Been a year, no excuses.
I would argue the main reason nothing gets done is that the leadership has a strangehold on power and THEY ARE OLD. Too old to have the energy to deal with cascading nightmares we face. They won't have to see the worst of it and most of them are set, so there's no need. Pelosi even justified them trading actively. These people all have a role to play as advisors. But they got to let go of power. if they don't, they will be swept from power and perhaps more because they don't represent anyone's interests past their donors.
We are a country about taxation WITH representation. We need leaders who can lead vigorously. No one in their 80?!s can do that. Its hubris. It will be disasterous hubris for him to run next time. And he will lose hard as the Ds in general will lose hard because people will say what did we end up getting? Nothing. Just lukewarm, squishy nothing. And I am sure types like you will once again dien to threaten the rest of the voters and the left with your usual "or else" threats to your avowed partners. And people will rightly turn to you and say, "or else what?" because the Ds won't have done a damn thing for them in any way they can point to. Thats a recipe for loss. And the only way we get winning again is to flush out everyone on a team rather than on point. Because you are worthless and we are very, very tired of being condescended to by those who don't deliver and ask us to follow blindly. If the Ds stood for anything, this would be different. But they are as weak as cardboard.