F**king Mondays: Interesting Polls, Israel Strikes, and a Desperate, Senile Trump

It's that time of the week again!

Image: EPA/Tannen Maury

Welcome to another edition of “F**king Mondays!” to start your week off! In the roundup today:

Interesting polling data

The polls after the Democratic Convention are extremely interesting, and a sign that gender division is going to play a big role in the race. Reports ABC News:

While the overall numbers are essentially unchanged from before the convention, the gender gap has widened. Harris leads by 13 points among women, 54%-41%, while it's Trump +5 points among men, 51%-46%, for an 18-point gap. (The Trump-Harris difference among men is not statistically significant.) Pre-convention, Harris had been a slight +6 points among women and a non-significant +3 among men, a 3-point gap. The gender gap now is more in line with recent elections -- an average of 19 points in exit polls since 1996.

Much of the moves among women and men have occurred among white people. White women have gone from +13 points for Trump pre-convention to a virtual dead heat (Trump +2) now; white men, from +13 points for Trump before the convention to +21 points now.

I was expecting a bigger bump for Harris after the convention, but either way, the Harris camp are probably pretty happy about these numbers. The statistically significant shift in women voters is exactly what camp Kamala wants, and it is proof that her presence and message are resonating. Furthermore, the overall polls paint a clear picture: Harris is on the up, while Trump is declining:

The trend has held since Harris took over the campaign from Biden, and it shows no sign of slowing.

Israel protests Netanyahu

It is incredibly difficult to get an accurate picture of who is to blame for the failure to reach a ceasefire deal between Israel and Hamas. Israel defenders blame Hamas unequivocally, while the pro Palestinian crowd have maintained the exact opposite.

Having followed the conflict closely for almost a year now, I think it is abundantly clear that both sides are to blame. Hamas has rejected several deals in the past few months and bears the ultimate responsibility for taking the hostages in the first place. But the Netanyahu government does not appear to actually want a deal either.

For Hamas the logic is clear: the more death and destruction there is, the more power they maintain in Gaza and the more support they get from Iran and the Islamic world. For Israel, the reasons are a little more complex. The most obvious one is that the longer the conflict goes on, the longer Netanyahu’s political career continues. Without a war, the unpopular Netanyahu not only faces the prospect of losing, but going to prison for corruption. Therefore Netanyahu continues pretending to want to make a deal, but actively sabotages them behind the scenes.

Another reason Israel is refusing to make a deal is because many in the far right coalition government really are committed to annihilating Hamas. This is an almost impossible objective that even the Israeli military has acknowledged, but one that Netanyahu must pretend is possible to placate the extremists (and thus keep himself in power).

Either way, after the killing of six hostages, Israelis have had enough of Netanyahu’s games and are taking to the streets to demand a deal. Reports the Washington Post:

Israelis over two days staged the largest anti-government demonstration since Oct. 7, with hundreds of thousands of people taking to the streets and joining a general strike Monday that brought much of the country to a halt as the last of six hostages recovered from Gaza over the weekend was laid to rest.

Israeli American Hersh Goldberg-Polin, 23, and five other hostages were shot at close range and killed by their captors, Israeli forensics results showed, shortly before they were retrieved by the Israeli military on Saturday.

Their deaths, announced Sunday, sent shock waves throughout Israel and ignited widespread fury among hostage families and their hundreds of thousands of supporters who have for months accused Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu of torpedoing a deal in favor of his political interests.

True to form, Netanyahu has rejected the pleas from the public and turned the tragic deaths into a rallying cry (via the Times):

“What message would it send Hamas,” to cede under pressure following the deaths of more hostages, Netanyahu asked rhetorically. “Slay hostages and you’ll get concessions?”

Asked how he would define the end of the war, he said, “When Hamas no longer rules Gaza.”

The logic is familiar, and deeply destructive: sabotage negotiations, claim Hamas cannot be negotiated with, wait for the inevitable atrocities, then claim you were right all along. This is how extremism flourishes, and without real leadership on either side, why this conflict is still far from over.

Trump is flailing

If you want to know how badly Kamala Harris is unnerving Trump, just look at his new pledge to make the GOP a “leader” on IVF treatment (via the AP):

Republican presidential nominee Donald Trump’s vow to promote in vitro fertilization by forcing health insurance companies or the federal government to pay for the treatments is at odds with the actions of much of his own party.

Yet his surprising announcement Thursday reveals the former president’s realization that GOP stances on abortion and reproductive rights could be huge liabilities for his chances of returning to the White House. Trump has quickly tried to reframe the narrative around those issues after Vice President Kamala Harris entered the presidential race.

Even before he made his coverage proposal, Trump had been promoting the idea that the Republican Party is a “leader” on IVF.

This is political pandering at its absolute worst. Trump has no intention of following through with this of course, but knows he is losing with women after ensuring abortion rights were gutted during his presidency. Trump is all over the place on abortion these days, supporting state rights while opposing federal bans, backing more relaxed rules before turning against them, going back on forth on the number of weeks, and now becoming a champion of IVF, a procedure many on the right believe constitutes abortion.

It is also worth pointing out that other than proposals to gut the ACA, Trump still doesn’t have a health care plan, so it is unclear how the famous “Trumpcare” would actually force insurance companies to pay for it.

Senile Trump

According to Donald Trump, the way Kamala Harris “treated Mike Pence was horrible”. Trump made the statement on a rambling interview with Mark Levin over the weekend, leading to significant confusion from viewers who had no idea what he was talking about. The comment was particularly confusing given Trump was happy to let his supporters hang the former VP on Jan. 6th.

“They say she has many deficiencies, but she’s a nasty person,” Trump said. “The way she treated Mike Pence was horrible. The way she treats people is horrible. The way she treated Justice Kavanaugh in that hearing – in the history of Congress, nobody’s been treated that way.”

The Harris campaign, no doubt smarting from the months of abuse over Joe Biden’s age, was quick to stick the knife in:

“In a stunning senile moment, Donald Trump just suggested it was Kamala Harris who treated Mike Pence poorly,” the campaign posted on X. “Donald Trump clearly cannot remember anything. Retweet to make sure all Americans see this hypocritical and senile moment.”

Republicans made it very clear that attacking someone over their age and cognitive abilities is fair game, so they are going to have to get used to this.

Hope everyone has a great week!

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