F**king Mondays: Trump Unravels, Ukraine Invades Russia, and Elon's Horrific Podcast

It's that time of the week again!

Welcome to the latest edition of “F**king Mondays!” In the round up today:

Trump’s numbers are unraveling, fast

Some very good news for people who like democracy and don’t want their government run by mentally unstable despots. Just take a look a the Silver Bulletin’s polls on where the presidential race stands (as of yesterday):

Add to the fact that Democrats have consistently over performed in elections for several years, the picture for Donald Trump and the GOP is not a pretty one.

Trump of course is glued to the polls, and his mental state is deteriorating accordingly:

According to sources in the GOP, the private polling is actually even worse putting Trump behind in places like Ohio. In the New York Times, Maggie Haberman and Jonathan Swan recently reported on what they say have been the “worst three weeks of Donald Trump’s 2024 campaign”:

He [Trump] has found the change disorienting, those who interact with him say. Mr. Trump had grown comfortable campaigning against an 81-year-old incumbent who struggled to navigate stairs, thoughts and sentences. Suddenly, he finds himself in a race against a Black woman nearly 20 years younger, one who has already made history and who is drawing large and excited crowds.

The people around Mr. Trump see a candidate knocked off his bearings, nothing like the man who reclined serenely on July 15 as he watched as thousands of delegates cheered him on the first night of the Republican National Convention. Then, Mr. Trump, his ear bandaged, was a living martyr after the assassination attempt two days before. Inside the Milwaukee arena, the Democrats had already been defeated; the only thing left to wonder about was the margin of Mr. Trump’s victory.

If the poll numbers stand, any margin of victory has completely disappeared for Trump. Kamala Harris has not only transformed the race, but she is now the odds on favorite to win it — a truly stunning twist in what has turned out to be the most unpredictable race in recent history.

Ukraine invades Russia?

In a dramatic turn of events, Ukraine’s unexpected invasion of Russia last week is yielding tangible results. Reported the Washington Post:

Nearly a week into a stunning Ukrainian incursion into western Russia, the acting governor of the Kursk region told President Vladimir Putin and other security officials Monday that the situation is “complicated,” with Kyiv’s forces having advanced 7½ miles into the country and controlling more than two dozen villages.

“As of today, the enemy is in control of 28 communities, having advanced 12 kilometers into the Kursk region on a 40-kilometer-wide front,” Alexei Smirnov told the officials via video conference. “For us, the problem is that there is no clear front line, no understanding of where the [Ukrainian] combat units are. It is very important to know where the enemy is and at what time.”

According to Foreign Policy, the invasion “has meant the largest territorial gain by either side since the successful Ukrainian counteroffensives in Kharkiv and Kherson in the fall of 2022”. Furthermore, “it is also the first time Russia has been invaded by foreign troops since World War II, showing Russians in no uncertain terms that the bloody war they unleashed against their neighbor has come home.”

The invasion is acutely embarrassing for the Kremlin, and highlights their vulnerability to a much smaller, but far better organized army. The attack will also have profound psychological ramifications for Russia and greatly strengthen Ukraine’s hand when it comes to negotiating a peace settlement. It has been conventional wisdom that Ukraine would have to make huge territorial concessions to Russia for a lasting peace agreement. But with this latest development, that is no longer the case.

Great leaders know it is always better to negotiate from a position of strength, and finally Volodymyr Zelensky has managed to put his country in one.

Trump calls Kamala Harris a “bitch”

With any other candidate in any other race in any other era, this would be immediately disqualifying (via Politico):

Former President Donald Trump reportedly has used a slur often targeted at women to describe Vice President Kamala Harris during at least two private conversations. His campaign denies it.

The New York Times cited two people who, on different occasions, heard Trump call Harris a “b——.” The people were granted anonymity to describe private discussions.

The Trump campaign has denied the report, but given their candidate is notoriously vulgar about women, routinely calling them “fat pigs”, “dogs” and “slobs” in public, the chances he made a derogatory comment about Harris are extremely high. Trump, it should be noted, was caught on tape bragging about grabbing women “by the pussy”, has been found liable in a civil court for sexual abuse and rape, and credibly accused by 26 women of rape and sexual assault.

Had Joe Biden or any other Democrat referred to a female Republican as a “bitch”, the blowback from the media and the GOP would be brutal. But Donald Trump is given a pass to break every convention, every code of ethic, and basic standards of human decency because…he’s “just being Trump”?

The GOP at one point prided itself on being the party of family values. Now it is just a personality cult helmed by one of the most depraved conmen in American history.

The world waits for Iran to attack Israel

An attack is imminent, but we don’t know exactly what kind of damage Iran intends to inflict on Israel. Reports the Times:

Iran vowed revenge at the end of last month after a top Hamas leader was killed in Tehran, leading many in Israel to fear an imminent attack. Nearly two weeks have passed and no large-scale response has materialized, leaving Israel and the wider Middle East on edge.

The crisis comes at an especially delicate moment in Iran, which analysts say is trying to formulate a response that doesn’t let an assassination on its soil go unpunished, while avoiding an all-out war against a powerful adversary. It also comes as a new government in Tehran has taken office, which could be slowing a decision on how to respond.

Given Iran’s previous attack on Israel was a telegraphed, easily defended assault that caused minimal damage and no deaths, my sense is we’ll see much the same. The new government almost certainly doesn’t want be responsible for triggering a regional war, so they will be calibrating their attack very, very carefully.

Israel/Hamas ceasefire talks are reaching a crescendo too, with negotiators working feverishly to stop the fighting and start a hostage swap in the coming days. If Iran strikes before a deal is reached, it could certainly set the clock back again and ensure more bloodshed. If Iran waits, it will be a clear sign it does not want to escalate tensions in the region, so the longer it goes, the better.

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