For a lot more theory on how Trump (but not only Trump) is mistaken in his economic policies, may I invite you to subscribe (for free) to my substack, "Radical Centrist?"
I write mainly about US monetary policy, US fiscal policy, trade/industrial policy, and climate change policy.
I have my opinions about which US political party is by far the least bad and they are not hard to figure out, but I try to keep my analysis of the issues non-partisan.
Keynes said, “Madmen in authority, who hear voices in the air, are distilling their frenzy from some academic scribbler of a few years back.”
There’s global certainty things will get worse for USA based on his long history of business failures, screwing his investors and skating away. Most of his MAGA fanboys and fangirls are out of the loop on how finance and economics works. It appears big firms and fund managers were holding off on selling until they could see if loser 47 had enough constraint around him to avoid his habitual f_cking up. Scott Bessent was asked a couple days ago if he was concerned about the historic speed of stocks selloff resulting from tariff shock. He very suavely and calmly talked about how well the trading system was working with the pace of recent daily selloff, completely avoiding the issue of most savvy investors dumping and running. Everything about 47 is crooked. Most readers know it’s going to continue that way until he’s put away.
The loss of confidence extends far wider and deeper than currency and US bonds. The Republicans have unilaterally repudiated a number of treaties and agreements since Trump was reelected.
What basis is there for any country or corporation to rely on any agreement offered by this government or any agency of it. None.
How can any country, corporation or individual rely on the US to act lawfully in any way. They can’t.
Can any country, corporation or individual rely on the current “rules” promulgated by this US government such that they can plan long term investments. Of course not.
And so on. This is the real damage caused by the current unlawful chaos, the mob boss behaviour of this Republican administration.
The biggest failure we had was a lack of imagination. For every thought of hope that we give ourselves its also healthy to add a fail state where things go wrong. Unfortunately American Exceptionalism made us numb to the idea that we could fail and that's where the sudden WTFs are coming from. I'm surprisingly calm because while I will be negatively affected by it mentally my hands have been gripping the seat for less than 10 years. Good piece!
We will be getting out of the stock market on Friday, which was the fastest appointment we could get. I am not a financial expert, but in our case we're bailing out into annuities at the strongest companies we could find. I'm in the "Depression" camp, especially after China stated that they are setting an embargo on rare earth minerals to the US. That will devastate the high tech, automakers, and green industries. China has about 90% of the market and there are no substitutes for them.
For good reason, no one trusts the US anymore. Even if the current regime disappeared overnight, it will be decades before we regain the world's trust.
For a lot more theory on how Trump (but not only Trump) is mistaken in his economic policies, may I invite you to subscribe (for free) to my substack, "Radical Centrist?"
https://thomaslhutcheson.substack.com/
I write mainly about US monetary policy, US fiscal policy, trade/industrial policy, and climate change policy.
I have my opinions about which US political party is by far the least bad and they are not hard to figure out, but I try to keep my analysis of the issues non-partisan.
Keynes said, “Madmen in authority, who hear voices in the air, are distilling their frenzy from some academic scribbler of a few years back.”
I want to be that scribbler.
Thanks,
There’s global certainty things will get worse for USA based on his long history of business failures, screwing his investors and skating away. Most of his MAGA fanboys and fangirls are out of the loop on how finance and economics works. It appears big firms and fund managers were holding off on selling until they could see if loser 47 had enough constraint around him to avoid his habitual f_cking up. Scott Bessent was asked a couple days ago if he was concerned about the historic speed of stocks selloff resulting from tariff shock. He very suavely and calmly talked about how well the trading system was working with the pace of recent daily selloff, completely avoiding the issue of most savvy investors dumping and running. Everything about 47 is crooked. Most readers know it’s going to continue that way until he’s put away.
The loss of confidence extends far wider and deeper than currency and US bonds. The Republicans have unilaterally repudiated a number of treaties and agreements since Trump was reelected.
What basis is there for any country or corporation to rely on any agreement offered by this government or any agency of it. None.
How can any country, corporation or individual rely on the US to act lawfully in any way. They can’t.
Can any country, corporation or individual rely on the current “rules” promulgated by this US government such that they can plan long term investments. Of course not.
And so on. This is the real damage caused by the current unlawful chaos, the mob boss behaviour of this Republican administration.
The biggest failure we had was a lack of imagination. For every thought of hope that we give ourselves its also healthy to add a fail state where things go wrong. Unfortunately American Exceptionalism made us numb to the idea that we could fail and that's where the sudden WTFs are coming from. I'm surprisingly calm because while I will be negatively affected by it mentally my hands have been gripping the seat for less than 10 years. Good piece!
We will be getting out of the stock market on Friday, which was the fastest appointment we could get. I am not a financial expert, but in our case we're bailing out into annuities at the strongest companies we could find. I'm in the "Depression" camp, especially after China stated that they are setting an embargo on rare earth minerals to the US. That will devastate the high tech, automakers, and green industries. China has about 90% of the market and there are no substitutes for them.
For good reason, no one trusts the US anymore. Even if the current regime disappeared overnight, it will be decades before we regain the world's trust.