“Having studied the polls and pollsters carefully over the past few election cycles however, I can’t help but feel this election won’t actually be that close. Because lost in the data, and in the campaign reporting, are some convincing indicators that show Harris not just beating Trump, but trouncing him.”
Thanks Ben, excellent analysis, and I wholeheartedly agree. I think the election won’t be close for the same reasons: superior ground game, more money (although Trump can close the gap), more motivated and galvanized players, and the fact Kamala is running an extremely intelligent and competent campaign.
In contrast, Trump has outsourced the campaign’s ground game to a Super PAC. And not just any Super PAC; it’s Musk’s “America PAC,” which has the dubious honor of wasting $250 million in campaign funds for DeSatan, without showing even one primary electoral win. What could possibly go wrong?
Furthermore, with abortion on the menu in so many swing states, democrats have an opportunity to steal two senate seats in Florida and Texas, helping democrats to preserve their slight advantage in the senate (a game changer if Harris wins), especially when it comes to the federal judiciary.
Additionally, Harris has even narrowed Trump’s lead to four points, trailing 47% to 43% in ALL WHITE Iowa ( according to the Des Moines Register). This has to be a harbinger of things to come in this election, and not good for Trump!
Although, I don’t have the empirical data to make an educated guess, all signs point to an amazing “Happy Ending,” come this November: Press On America, and vote BLUE down the ticket; our nation is depending on it…:)
For the life of me, I can't figure out why the DEMS can't get in front of the smoke screens MAGA appears to be winning on. Last night, when CBS brought up late term abortions and post birth executions, Walz pivoted to talk about women and doctors making their own decisions almost insinuating it's true -- why not call it out and refuting the rumor like this: "For the record, nowhere in America is it legal to abort a fetus in the 9th month, nor is it legal to execute a baby after its born. It isn't happening. And to any family that has to suffer the tragedy of a late term stillbirth, or a child born with so many birth defects that life isn't viable even with the best life support technology, our hearts are with you. Shame on Republicans for muddying the waters on this issue. Your rhetoric puts women in these situations at risk of dying. Your smoke screens mean extended suffering for humans born who will likely only know a few hours or days filled with incredible suffering and pain."
And why can't democrats flat out say "Trump's tariffs will NOT BE paid for by foreign countries, they will be paid by US consumers!" Harris and Walz stick to "Trump Tax" branding without connecting the dots to tariffs. Doing so would neutralize most everything Trump and Walz (and their mouthpieces) say.
And for the love of God Tim -- get in front of the China issue. "OK fine, I was in China 'at the time' of the protests, not 'during' them. Semantics. That whole era saw incredible change in China and YES, I was there for that. Now what really matters to American voters is...."
I am in complete agreement and have said so on past posts. I believe she could walk away with 335 electoral votes or more. There is a vast underestimation of motivated Democrats, ballot initiatives that will attract Democratic voters and atrocious down ballot Republicans.
My gut has been saying the same thing, largely because on top of everything else, the electorate is changing in important ways every cycle, ways that favor Democrats in general. MAGA seems to be exacerbating/accelerating that change. People are so pissed off, and so over Trump and MAGA. Yet pollsters and prognosticators seem so terrified of not sufficiently weighting rural white voters that it just feels like they're all extremely skittish about being the first to point out that it might not be long before we're out of a "horse race" model for national elections entirely. And they certainly seem terrified of trying to quantify the enthusiasm gap in any real way.
Not saying this as a mathematician, of course, and I'm not inside the polling models. But yeah ... that's what my gut says.
I’m more concerned about keeping the senate though I do wonder how accurate those polls are as well. Abortion is on the ballot in Montana, yet Tester is behind? Marijuana legalization and abortion rights are on the ballot yet Scott leads in the polls? Would pro choice voters cross over and effectively nullify their own votes by electing a senator who strip that right away at a federal level?
Yeah I don’t know. But if Dems do flip the House and keep the senate, President Harris’s first act should be to codify Roe. Get rid of the damn filibuster and just damn do it.
And while they’re at it- fix the corrupted and bought Supreme Court !!!
I’m increasingly concerned that Trump doesn’t care about the vote count. Losing only bolsters his claim the election was rigged. Losing big means it was rigged bigly.
He’s scheming to derail the certifications and send it to the House where he’ll win.
Here in my neck of the woods trumpers must be worried. Just snapped this photo an hour ago. They are not used to seeing signs for Democrats around here and there have been a lot popping up! Looks like it’s gotten under someone’s skin. So much for “freedom” from the right.
I am just SWELL, this is my first sober presidential election, I’m writing violent West Wing fanfiction, and things are SWELL. lol (It’s great to see you on here, and thank you for the reassurance.)
Jamie, this is my first time voting as well, at the tender age of 62! Lots of us exist,we just haven't cared enough to vote. We aren't factored in to the polling because we are an undecided territory! I do believe that there will be plenty people like us showing up!
By the way, this is my first time voting, at my age. I am almost 2 years clean and sober. It's frightening,but it must be done! The lie is dead because we do recover!
“Having studied the polls and pollsters carefully over the past few election cycles however, I can’t help but feel this election won’t actually be that close. Because lost in the data, and in the campaign reporting, are some convincing indicators that show Harris not just beating Trump, but trouncing him.”
Thanks Ben, excellent analysis, and I wholeheartedly agree. I think the election won’t be close for the same reasons: superior ground game, more money (although Trump can close the gap), more motivated and galvanized players, and the fact Kamala is running an extremely intelligent and competent campaign.
In contrast, Trump has outsourced the campaign’s ground game to a Super PAC. And not just any Super PAC; it’s Musk’s “America PAC,” which has the dubious honor of wasting $250 million in campaign funds for DeSatan, without showing even one primary electoral win. What could possibly go wrong?
Furthermore, with abortion on the menu in so many swing states, democrats have an opportunity to steal two senate seats in Florida and Texas, helping democrats to preserve their slight advantage in the senate (a game changer if Harris wins), especially when it comes to the federal judiciary.
Additionally, Harris has even narrowed Trump’s lead to four points, trailing 47% to 43% in ALL WHITE Iowa ( according to the Des Moines Register). This has to be a harbinger of things to come in this election, and not good for Trump!
Although, I don’t have the empirical data to make an educated guess, all signs point to an amazing “Happy Ending,” come this November: Press On America, and vote BLUE down the ticket; our nation is depending on it…:)
For the life of me, I can't figure out why the DEMS can't get in front of the smoke screens MAGA appears to be winning on. Last night, when CBS brought up late term abortions and post birth executions, Walz pivoted to talk about women and doctors making their own decisions almost insinuating it's true -- why not call it out and refuting the rumor like this: "For the record, nowhere in America is it legal to abort a fetus in the 9th month, nor is it legal to execute a baby after its born. It isn't happening. And to any family that has to suffer the tragedy of a late term stillbirth, or a child born with so many birth defects that life isn't viable even with the best life support technology, our hearts are with you. Shame on Republicans for muddying the waters on this issue. Your rhetoric puts women in these situations at risk of dying. Your smoke screens mean extended suffering for humans born who will likely only know a few hours or days filled with incredible suffering and pain."
And why can't democrats flat out say "Trump's tariffs will NOT BE paid for by foreign countries, they will be paid by US consumers!" Harris and Walz stick to "Trump Tax" branding without connecting the dots to tariffs. Doing so would neutralize most everything Trump and Walz (and their mouthpieces) say.
And for the love of God Tim -- get in front of the China issue. "OK fine, I was in China 'at the time' of the protests, not 'during' them. Semantics. That whole era saw incredible change in China and YES, I was there for that. Now what really matters to American voters is...."
I am in complete agreement and have said so on past posts. I believe she could walk away with 335 electoral votes or more. There is a vast underestimation of motivated Democrats, ballot initiatives that will attract Democratic voters and atrocious down ballot Republicans.
My gut has been saying the same thing, largely because on top of everything else, the electorate is changing in important ways every cycle, ways that favor Democrats in general. MAGA seems to be exacerbating/accelerating that change. People are so pissed off, and so over Trump and MAGA. Yet pollsters and prognosticators seem so terrified of not sufficiently weighting rural white voters that it just feels like they're all extremely skittish about being the first to point out that it might not be long before we're out of a "horse race" model for national elections entirely. And they certainly seem terrified of trying to quantify the enthusiasm gap in any real way.
Not saying this as a mathematician, of course, and I'm not inside the polling models. But yeah ... that's what my gut says.
I’m more concerned about keeping the senate though I do wonder how accurate those polls are as well. Abortion is on the ballot in Montana, yet Tester is behind? Marijuana legalization and abortion rights are on the ballot yet Scott leads in the polls? Would pro choice voters cross over and effectively nullify their own votes by electing a senator who strip that right away at a federal level?
Yeah I don’t know. But if Dems do flip the House and keep the senate, President Harris’s first act should be to codify Roe. Get rid of the damn filibuster and just damn do it.
And while they’re at it- fix the corrupted and bought Supreme Court !!!
And pass the John Lewis Voting Act! So much good work to do.
Would you like to wager 100k on it?
Sure I’ll bet you
I’m increasingly concerned that Trump doesn’t care about the vote count. Losing only bolsters his claim the election was rigged. Losing big means it was rigged bigly.
He’s scheming to derail the certifications and send it to the House where he’ll win.
Here in my neck of the woods trumpers must be worried. Just snapped this photo an hour ago. They are not used to seeing signs for Democrats around here and there have been a lot popping up! Looks like it’s gotten under someone’s skin. So much for “freedom” from the right.
I mean, I want to believe, but my hope is really dying to death.
Stop looking at the polls Jamie! A lot of noise from now until Nov 5th. Early vote shows huge numbers for Democrats. Also, how are you??
They didn't start counting any early votes, yet...
I am just SWELL, this is my first sober presidential election, I’m writing violent West Wing fanfiction, and things are SWELL. lol (It’s great to see you on here, and thank you for the reassurance.)
Jamie, this is my first time voting as well, at the tender age of 62! Lots of us exist,we just haven't cared enough to vote. We aren't factored in to the polling because we are an undecided territory! I do believe that there will be plenty people like us showing up!
Vote Blue like your life depends on it!!
By the way, this is my first time voting, at my age. I am almost 2 years clean and sober. It's frightening,but it must be done! The lie is dead because we do recover!