See You On The Other Side
Joe Biden is going to win, and it isn't going to be close.
by Ben Cohen
Almost everyone I know is extremely nervous about what is going to happen on November 3rd. Several friends have told me recently that they have had to log out of all social media accounts because of the onslaught of polls, news headlines and crazy Trump tweets that were causing severe anxiety. I am sure most Banter readers are in the same boat.
I have struggled with my own moments of fear and panic over the past few weeks and months, no doubt caused by Donald Trump dominating much of my waking life. I have covered his administration for years now, and I have been trained to expect the absolute worst. But I now sense a tidal wave of change coming, and the end of this horrifically destructive era in American history.
By late Tuesday all the campaign work will have been done, all the votes cast, and we will know fairly soon after what kind of future Americans and the rest of the planet can look forward to.
My best guess is that this election isn’t going to be close.
I think Joe Biden is going to hammer Donald Trump in a victory that will give the former Vice President a huge mandate for governing the country. Trump and his loyalists will kick and scream, mount legal challenges, and demand the Supreme Court intervene. But it won’t matter because the result will be definitive, and no Republican will be able to defend Trump’s position that the election was stolen.
I could be wrong about this, as most of us were in 2016, but from careful analysis of the data over many months, I think it is now abundantly clear that 2020 is a very, very different year.
Here are some points worth considering as we wait for this pivotal election to be over:
If Biden takes Pennsylvania, the race is basically done. He has enough other states that are solid blue in the bag to only need one decent sized, already leaning blue state to take the White House. He’s up by 5.1 points in PA according to FiveThirtyEight and his campaign is engaged in a huge turnout effort on the ground. Trump won the state by 0.7 points in 2016 and it is highly unlikely he’ll be doing better there four years later during a devastating pandemic.
Even if Biden loses Pennsylvania, he still has several paths to victory. For example, while Arizona isn’t as sure a bet as Pennsylvania according to the polls, the state hasn’t suffered the same kind of polling mishaps as other swing states. Polls accurately predicted Trump would win in 2016, and given Biden is now up there by 2.5 points, he has a very good shot of winning it. If he loses PA, there is still no need to panic. AZ is a great back up to get Biden to 270.
Trump support has collapsed in key demographics, particularly in the suburbs, and particularly with women. He needs them to win, and there is no evidence they are coming out to vote for him last minute.
The state polls have been extremely consistent for months now, and they are likely to be more accurate than they were in 2016. Polls are now weighted for education due to many of them missing Trump’s support with uneducated white men in 2016, and may even be undercounting Biden’s support.
There could be 2016 size polling errors, and Biden would still win.
Trump can still win this, but there is no reliable evidence anywhere to suggest he is going to. There were several signs that indicated an upset in 2016 as the election date drew nearer. The polls were tightening, and the FBI inexplicably launched an investigation into Hillary Clinton’s private email server just 11 days before voters went to the polls. There are no such signs in this election. The polls remain steady, there are no investigations into Biden’s so-called “crime family”, and none of Trump’s smear tactics have appeared to have worked. Biden looks set to beat Trump in the Electoral College, and it isn’t going to be close.
The Senate is tighter, but all polls point to a Democratic takeover. I suspect it is going to be closer than the Presidential race, but the Democrats are in a very good position to pick up just enough to win a slim majority.
Given the horrors of the past four years under Trump and his criminal handling of the Coronavirus pandemic, Americans and the planet deserve a break. Those opposed to this administration have worked tirelessly for this moment, so go vote if you haven’t, then get ready for a very good night for Joe Biden and the Democrats. You’ve earned it.
See you on the other side.
Ben
Listen to Ben and Mike break down the polls in the lates episode of The Banter Podcast here.
Read the latest for Banter Members:
Win Or Lose, ‘White Idiocracy’ Isn’t Going Anywhere Soon
White American men without college degrees present a grave threat to the future of the Republic. We can't let them win again, says Bob Cesca
Why Returning To Normal After Trump Is A Terrible Idea
It’s time for America to reject the chaos and corruption of the Republican Party, find its new normal, and lay a foundation for the next half century of stability, says Justin Rosario
Regardless of the outcome, a note of gratitude to the Banter team--Cohen, Cesca, Rosario, Herschlag--for incredibly insightful, provocative, articulate, and sane writing during these FUBAR times.
The Republicans will try to suppress as many votes as possible. I don’t know if they’ll throw out enough ballots or prevent enough votes from being cast to make a difference, but we could be talking thousands of Biden votes or potential Biden votes across the country not being counted. That’s enough of a possibility to make anyone anxious.
And then there’s the electoral college voters. Will they try what some of them did four years ago and give Trump their votes regardless of who won the popular votes in their states? Despite certain states passing laws banning this behavior, it’s still a very real possibility.