The GOP's Pathetic Midterm Collapse
The Democratic Party over performed in every way imaginable setting up a clear path for Biden's re-election in 2024.
by Ben Cohen
Here at The Banter we long suspected the midterm elections would not play out the way the media and Republicans suggested they would. While pundits were busy analyzing polls and regurgitating conventional wisdom about incumbents, we looked at what was happening on the ground.
Back in August, Bob Cesca called the stunning vote in Kansas to reject a proposed constitutional amendment banning abortion “a colossal bellwether for what could happen in November”.
In September, Justin Rosario wrote this:
The GOP lost a special election in Alaska last week. A Democrat hasn’t been elected to Alaska’s sole House seat since 1971, which is before I was born. Alaska has voted Republican in every presidential race since 1968. Trump won the state in 2020 by 10 points. On top of all that, it was ranked-choice between a Democrat and two Republicans, meaning even after the third-place candidate was eliminated and their votes reallocated, the second-place candidate (the infamously dumb Sarah Palin) still lost to the Democrat.
This is a bigger deal than it first appears. The House is still within reach but it’s a heavier lift now and things are not improving for Republicans..
We spent hours discussing possible scenarios on The Banter Roundtable Podcast, and we told listeners not to pay too much attention to the polls or the pundits. This wasn’t because of our supernatural powers of prediction, but because we were paying close attention to, well, reality.
The combination of overturning Roe vs Wade, Jan. 6th, and the MAGA takeover of the GOP made it far more likely that voters would not be enthusiastic about Republicans. Yes, the economy was bad. Yes, President Biden’s polling numbers were not great. But America overwhelmingly rejected Trumpism in 2020, and all real evidence suggested Democrats were going to defy conventional wisdom. The special elections this past year were the real key to figuring out what was going on. As FiveThirtyEight reported back in August:
When a party consistently does well in special elections — defined not by winning or losing, but by outperforming a state or district’s baseline partisanship — it’s often a sign that the national political environment favors that party, and is therefore a good omen for that party in the upcoming regular general election.
The “Red Tsunami” predicted by much of the media and pretty much every Republican politician did not transpire last night. It wasn’t even a “Red Wave”. What we saw instead was a historic performance from the Democratic Party that over performed in every way imaginable.
As of publishing, it looks like the Democrats will keep hold of the Senate, and Republicans may eke out a narrow victory in the House. A slim victory in the House means Republicans aren’t going to be able to mount much of a fight against the Biden administration. Their promise of “oversight” (read: baseless impeachment attempts) isn’t going to happen, and there’s no chance they’ll get anything through the Senate even if the GOP does manage to gain control. To put it in historic perspective:
There was also the implosion of prominent MAGA candidates — an ominous harbinger of what Donald Trump can expect should he decide to run in 2024:
In one of the country’s most high-profile races, Trump’s handpicked Senate candidate in Pennsylvania, Dr. Mehmet Oz, lost to Democratic Lt. Gov. John Fetterman, according to NBC News. The result cost the GOP a Senate seat.
In Michigan, Trump-endorsed Republican Tudor Dixon lost a gubernatorial race, while 2020 election denier Kristina Karamo lost her Trump-backed bid for secretary of state, NBC projected.
In Arizona, Kari Lake, a former newscaster turned gubernatorial candidate who is one of Trump’s most high-profile proteges, trailed Democratic Gov. Katie Hobbs early Wednesday morning in a race that NBC considered too early to call. Trump-endorsed Senate hopeful Blake Masters, who is challenging Arizona Democratic Sen. Mark Kelly, also lagged in a race that NBC said was too early to call.
This also spells disaster for the GOP in 2024. The party is still controlled by Donald Trump, but his influence is clearly waning. Gov. Ron DeSantis performed incredibly well in Florida last night and it looks like a battle between the two of them is now inevitable. DeSantis appears to have the stature in the GOP to stand up to Trump, so Democrats can now look forward to an exciting 18 months of both candidates tearing shreds out of each other.
This was, in summary, a catastrophe for the GOP. And the best thing about it? They know it:
It turns out Americans aren’t big fans of fascism, election deniers, and having their reproductive rights taken away. The fight is on for 2024, and Democrats finally have something to be confident about.
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S'Souza: "Yes, we'll get the House which should help us hog-tie Biden's agenda for the rest of his term."
Not "should help us pass the bills we have in mind". Or even just "means we can set the agenda".
Of course not. Republicans have no SOLUTIONS, no ideas. No concept that maybe they should do something that improves things for people. They see being in power solely in terms of how they can CAUSE PROBLEMS for the other guy.